William hill st leger
Posted on Thursday, October 09 @ 01:38:22 EDT by gonnaknockyouout
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josjac writes "Hi all,hope alls well and you're all backing plenty of winners!
Was having a look at the ante post market for this years 6 bend blue riband and whilst its disappointing to not see the two touted irish superstars,college causeway and shelbourne aston in the final line up,we still have a possible great comp on our hands imo.
Indeed,i was always sceptical about whether causeway was ever coming and my personal stance,following a few astray ante post punts on pat buckley hounds, that until they are actually being loaded into the cans for a comp,i wont believe they are running and i certainly wont be parting with the hard earned until i see it with my eyes!!
We were left with a final total of 53 entries and the oddschecker site has them priced as so:
http://www.oddschecker.com/greyhounds/ante-post-dogs/william-hill-st-leger
If we start at the top with lenson joker then we have a very obvious and worthy favourite,a racing post festival stayers victory,a cesarawitch,a william hill grand prix and a champion stakes to boot,not to mention runner up in last years st leger,the list of big race success goes on and on,literally!
The dog is an absolute superstar and must surely be a shoo in for greyhound of the year.
If you're looking for chinks,you're wasting your time,he starts better than ever, he stays,he goes from any box,there are no flaws to the dog,apart from the one where betting is comcerned,THE PRICE!
Do we really want to be taking a best price of 2s about a dog in a four round comp,who has been under a slight injury cloud and whos latest performance for the cameras was'nt exactly perfect?
Ok,we've all heard that he cramped,sore wrist etc etc,but at 2s in a four round comp i dont want ANY flaws,infact, in a TWO round comp at 2s i dont want any flaws!! Anyway,i always go with my eyes and not my ears as regards greyhound punting!!
So lets take him on,on price grounds,but what with?
Flying winner is the obvious alternative according to the books,yet is another under a slight injury cloud?
Not for me i'm afraid.
I'm not a particular fan of 8 bend plodders though they are the source of some of my more successful big price punts,it just takes a bloody age to get paid out, waiting for them to plod a bit faster than the other tug boats all the way to the line is bloody stressful!!
Surely there will be something too quick over this trip for her? Theres a good few four bend types and with the likes of lenson joker always going to lead her how does she pick them up over this,the shorter of the two six bend trips run at the don?
I have heard it said shes a an "each way bet to nothing", and i agree,bet her each way and you'll get nothing.
Next in, we have a class act with classic pedigree in bubbly totti.
Recently stepped up to this six bend trip following a highly distinguished four bend career. Theres been many similar types to this dog over the years,strong running four bend dogs that look a natural for the 6 bend trip only to fail miserably when asked to tackle the trip competatively against proper 6 bend hounds,totti appears to be an exception to this rule given his impressive record since tackling the 6 bends,a recent record of 6 wins from 8 starts,which included a victory in the yorkshire st leger bares testement to his liking for the trip.
Hes not a hound i'd like to lay at all at around the 8s available,as hes still relatively unexposed at the trip and ask yourself this,"if lenson joker and bubbly totti were to have a two dog match over four bends who would be fav,who would win?" Can lenson joker actually go and get totti if totti leads him,even over six bends?"
I know which of the two prices(jokers 2/1 and tottis 8/1) i'd take given the huge doubt in my mind over the answer to those questions,at 4 times the price of lenson joker surely its a no brainer that totti is the better bet?
Its 12s bar the three of them,and i'm sure you're sick of reading this now,so i'll try and get to the selection and leave others to perhaps gave a little run down on their fancies?!
Given my thoughts above its pretty obvious totti will be on my list of pre comp plays,also on that list is a former finalist,a current 6 bend track record holder and a dog who in 48 career starts has finished top 3 in 40 of them,winning 22 of them,oh and by the way,hes 50/1!!!
Iceman brutus is a forgotten dog imo.
As above, he made last years final(went off 7/1,lenson joker was 4/1 same race) and broke down to return to the track in july of this year,i dont know what the injury was, but hes obviously been nursed back to fitness and i for one would love to see such perseverance rewarded with a bold show in this years classic.
Since his return hes competed 7 times and in his penultimate start finished runner up to totti in the final of the yorks st leger,after recording the second fastest time of the comp in the first round(only totti went quicker) and confirmed that form when running up in the final.
As a result he comes into this comp a very fresh dog,and though it was a bit of a worry that he had a slight break after the yorks final and was subsequently turned over at short odds at cov(comments of Crd&Bmp1, Mid) at 50/1 i think we have to take a bit on trust.
Provided his fragile frame holds up,i expect we can see improvement through the comp culmintaing in a glorious victory on sky where i promise to wake the dead if he makes it and hits the front at any point!!!
Plays for me are:
2pts win totti
2pts win brutus
1pt place brutus.
Would love to hear others views and their fancies and why they like them,as always,best of luck with your punts and thanks for reading.
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Average Score: 4.5
Votes: 2
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